THE Afrobarometer round eight survey on Zimbabwe released on June 17 2021 shows that since the now late former President Robert Mugabe’s ouster in a military coup in 2017, people believe that there are defects in Emmerson Mnangagwa’s ruling machinery.

Grievances are widespread among people of both sexes and all ages living in urban and rural areas albeit to slightly varying degrees. This social, economic and political discontent is breeding a silent social war. This is caused by the government’s incompetence leading to a weak social contract, economic hardships, food shortages, partisan institutions, and the ruling party’s growing illegitimacy.

However, this has not directly translated to an alternative electoral support for the resilient MDC Alliance, which despite State-engineered weapons of mass destruction has remained engraved in its social base and politically competitive.

The survey pits the MDC-A led by Nelson Chamisa and Zanu PF led by Mnangagwa.

I asked the scientists whether it was by design to only focus on the two political parties? The scientists said other political parties were variables but collectively could not make it beyond 1%. So those two parties were the only statistically significant as per respondents. Fair enough, as it confirms the reality of Zimbabwe’s political polarisation.

So, here are some preliminary reflections of what the survey might mean to the MDC-A and Zanu PF:

Zanu PF’s rural legitimacy is evidently waning following the loss of urban legitimacy in the 1990s. The majority of the citizenry in the rural areas (62%) feel that the country is going in the wrong direction. However, this does not directly translate to the MDC-A’s rural legitimacy. Be that as it may, this is a big opportunity to harness the growing rural discontent and articulate a vision based on the quotidian livelihoods concerns of the people and perhaps a wider vision of development of industries in rural areas (Dira).

Zanu PF’s propaganda on the economy is working most among those with no formal education. MDC-A, in general, has a strong resonance among those with post-secondary education. This is probably because the less-educated do not resonate with the MDCA’s modernist vision based on aesthetic cities and formal jobs. Perhaps specific interventions are needed to appeal to the less-educated in marginalised villages.

Zanu PF government is losing confidence across all demographic groupings. 61% of those above 56 years believe the country is going in the wrong direction. 67% of those who are 18-35 years and 71% of those between 36 and 55 years believe the same. The confidence left for Zanu PF is largely concentrated among the older generation. The 18-35 years category should be more resolute in speaking out against the direction the country is going than the 36-55 years age group. However, they know no other way of life and have never known another Zimbabwe.

Surprisingly, Midlands province (Mnangagwa’s adopted home area) is one of the provinces with the highest number of people (80%) saying the economy is doing badly. This means Mnangagwa’s policy of governance through ethnic ties is not translating to the betterment of economic livelihoods for all. There can be a disconnect between the elite and the subalterns within the same region.

However, the government is losing rural legitimacy but the data shows the greater share of loyalty that remains is concentrated in Mashonaland provinces with less people, by comparison to other provinces, believing the economic condition is bad as follows: (1) Mashonaland Central (53%), (2) Mashonaland East (62%), (3) Mashonaland West (67%). All the other seven provinces have above 70% of people saying the economic condition is bad.

There is need for a targeted strategy to break the Mashonaland authoritarian axis of conditioned and structured politics. Given the systematic side-lining of Matabeleland in politics and development, there is a chance for pragmatic alliance building.

Looking forward, the country is despondent and there is no hope. Only 35% think the economic situation will improve.

Social discontent and silent social war is widespread. MDC-A must strengthen the socio-economic and poverty reduction centred mobilisation and messaging. Last year, most Zimbabweans went several months without food (52%), medicine (55%), cash (87%) and clean water (51%). A majority said government was performing badly on creating jobs (91%), keeping prices stable (78%), improving living standards of the poor (75%), and other issues.

However, not all is doom for the government. Most Zimbabweans (81%) think the government managed COVID-19 pandemic well. This is because the MDC-A’s initial responses to the pandemic were not co-ordinated and were seen as desperate efforts to exploit the pandemic for political benefit.